In the wake of the horrific divorce proceedings, there are a few sky-is-falling baseball fans who think the Dodgers are boned for 2010.
At Purple Row, one of the writers speculated the Dodgers will suffer regressions and the Rockies may overtake the NL West title. The writer argues that with Orlando Hudson and Randy Wolf gone (with their 3 wins each) and the Dodgers filling those spots with slightly above replacement player level fill-ins, the team loses three wins–which would put the Dodgers (95 wins last season) and Rockies (92) at about even.
What the argument conveniently ignores is the Dodgers were four games below their pythagorean 99-win season. This was with underproduction from Russell Martin, Chad Billingsley and James Loney. If you counter with Andre Ethier’s overproductive season and cut his production to a modest .272/.360/.500 line with 20 home runs (this being the combination of the most modest parts of his past two seasons), his wRC+ is still in the ballpark of over 130.
The Rockies were a pythag 90-win team last year.
So yes, the Dodgers lost about six wins and replaced them with two or three from Jamie Carroll in full time and one or zero from whatever replacement rag arm fills up Wolf’s spot. That still puts them, at minimum, four wins above the Rockies.
I’m not saying it’s impossible the Rockies win the division over the Dodgers, just that it’s not likely.