Category Archives: Los Angeles Dodgers

Now That the Dust Has Settled, Here’s Why Kemp’s B-R/FG WAR Is Higher Than Braun’s

Now that most of the back and forth is over, Kemp’s WAR wasn’t higher than Braun because of defense, it was higher because Kemp played in 161 games to Braun’s 150. That’s 11 more games, 60 more PAs, and a little under 1/10th of the season.

Here’s the total WAR. In parentheses, Kemp’s WAR at Braun’s games played/PA total

Kemp’s B-R WAR: 10.0 (9.2)
Braun’s B-R WAR: 7.7

Kemp’s FG WAR: 8.7 (8.0)
Braun’s FG WAR: 7.8

B-R likes Kemp’s offense and positional adjustment more, FG is negligible if not for the games played. FG I think values baserunning more than B-R and Braun did a better job of not getting caught stealing, so there’s that. Even with that, Kemp’s still got a big edge in B-R and a minor edge in FG. As it stands, I’d be a lot cooler with Braun winning if Kemp had only played in 150 games, but that didn’t happen.

Yes, it’s this simple. It doesn’t have to do with defense or positional adjustments, but that Kemp performed at an elite level for 161 games to Ryan Braun’s 150.

Alors, c’est la vie. This isn’t anything like Juan Gonzalez winning the MVP in 1996 or anything, but I would’ve rather seen it go to the guy who deserved it more.

Congratulations to Brewers fans and to Ryan Braun, representing the Valley Jews.

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Let’s Get Real: Dodgers Won’t Sign Pujols, Fielder

Of course this isn’t directed at anyone in particular, aside from a few friends on facebook, but I want to get real here.

Can I get real?

OK, let’s get real. [real]

Dodgers signed Matt Kemp today to a 8-year/160 mil contract. They’re paying Matt Kemp what he’s worth during the years he’s worth it. It’s pretty much win-win, unless Kemp falls off a cliff at age 34.

This wonderful expenditure, as much as we all love it, pretty much precludes the Dodgers won’t be getting any major free agent this off-season. The team probably won’t be officially sold until April 1, which is pretty much opening day. Most free agents get their paychecks by early January; very few make it to February.

Additionally, the signings of Mark Ellis and Juan Rivera, both one-year deals, are basically Colletti’s way of trying to provide financial flexibility for 2012 and beyond (even if he is still overpaying Ellis and Rivera by a lot).

This isn’t pessimism, this is realism. [/real]

now lets talk about how mark cuban is gonna buy the dodgers

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Ted Lilly’s Homerless Allowed Streak–You’re Gonna Want to Read This

I don’t know what to call it. No Homer Streak? Whatever, let’s do this.

Ted Lilly has literally never gone a month in his career without giving up a home run. In 2002, he had only two starts in July and didn’t allow a home run, so there’s that. But September 2011 is the first time in his career he went a whole month without giving up a home run.

That was six consecutive starts without allowing a home run.

His longest homerless streaks before this:

1999: 4
2001: 5
2002: 4
2003: 3
2004: 4
2005: 3
2006: 3 (2)
2007: 3 (2)
2008: 2 (3)
2009: 3
2010: 3
2011: 6

Not only did he break his personal best for most non-homer-allowed games, he did it at the end of the season when he needed to allow only two home runs to join the 30/30 club.

Lilly has started 318 games in his career, appeared in 343 total. He’s given up 286 homers in that time; with multi-home run games, he’s had 193 games where he’s allowed a home run.

For averages, his HR/9 rate is 1.4 for his career, but since he averages 6 IP per start, it’s more like 0.933 per start. Yes, averaged out, he gives up a home run per appearances.

—Betting Odds—

Since he’s had 193 games with a homer allowed, 193 divided by 342 is 56; 56% of the time he made a MLB appearance he allowed a home run. That leaves you with 44% of the time he was in a game and didn’t allow one. That’s even on the lighter side, since we’re including non-start appearances (fewer innings, fewer chances to allow a HR).

You have better odds betting on the brightly colored spots on a Craps table and winning six times in a row than betting Lilly not giving up a homer.

So what are the official chances? The chances of Lilly not giving up a home run in six consecutive games are slightly less than 1% (about 0.73%; h/t @jeffersonlives). And he did it solely to prevent himself from entering the history books.

That’s pretty cool. We saw a >1% odd happen tonight.

The 30/30 pitcher season is rarer than Lilly’s homerless streak. There are about 17 seasons I think of a pitcher giving up 30 homers and 30 stolen bases in tens of thousands of eligible pitching seasons. But instead of Lilly breaking a negative record, he created a positive one–and a personal one at that. Good for him.


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A Follow-Up on Average/OBP/SLG Triple Crown and on Matt Kemp staying in LA

Here’s this post from last year, and I feel I should follow up on it a bit.

Josh Hamilton got seriously close last year, but Miguel Cabrera had him beat on OBP by .009. Kemp isn’t particularly close on the AOS triple crown, but who cares. He’s very close to the traditional triple crown and a 40/40 season with only a handful of games to go.

Kemp also had this to say on ESPN 710:

“[We] haven’t started talks,” the MVP candidate told 710 ESPN, “but I plan on being with Dodgers rest of my career.”

Pardon my language, but Goddamn it’s good to hear that.

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Matt Kemp and Ted Lilly May Be First Batter/Pitcher Teammates to 30/30 Club

I saw this on a forum and had to post it here.  I think it was originally written by this guy, but if it wasn’t, show me the link and I’ll give proper citation.


Matt Kemp has joined the 30/30 club with 30 HR and 33 SB. Ted Lilly has given up 28 HR and 29 SB. if Lilly gives up 2 more HR and another SB, both of which are perfectly feasible, they would become the first batter/pitcher teammates to have gotten/given up 30 hr & 30 sb in the same season.

Notable combos who fell just short:

1999 Dodgers: Raul Mondesi 33 HR 36 SB, Ismael Valdez 32 HR, 26 SB
1998 Mariners: Alex Rodriguez 42/46, Jeff Fassero 33/24
1996 Rockies: Ellis Burks 40/32 & Dante Bichette 31/31, Kevin Ritz 24/27
1990 Braves: Ron Gant 32/33, John Smoltz 20/31
1987 Mets: Darryl Strawberry 39/36 & Howard Johnson 36/32, Ron Darling 24/33
1987 Reds: Eric Davis 37/50, Ted Power 28/20
1987 Indians: Joe Carter 32/31, Tom Candiotti 28/25
1970 Brewers: Tommy Harper 31/38, Lew Krausse 33/23

I absolutely love this post.

The toughest part is actually the pitcher giving up that many.  Only 18 guys have done that in history, most of them in recent history.

Tim Wakefield (BOS 1996 and 2000) and Joe Coleman (DET 1973 and 1974) are the only two to do it more than once and you can probably imagine why: anybody who does give up that many homers is probably out of baseball the next year.

In 1987, four pitchers (Jose Guzman, Bert Blyleven, Jack Morris and Charlie Hough) gave up 30 homers and 30 SBs and that was because 1987 was a boom year for homers.

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Congrats to Matt Kemp on 30/30!

TrueBlueLA has a pretty darn good post (here) on how fast Matt Kemp got there and the prospects of him getting to 40/40, which are surprisingly not too bad.

I don’t know about you, but it’s been a lot of fun going to the ballpark to watch Kemp play this year.

Kemp is currently leading the National League in WAR at 7.7 and is only .2 behind Jose Bautista (JOEY BATS!!) for the lead in all of baseball.  That difference can be  within the margin of error, though, so take it with a grain of salt.

Ryan Braun is second in the NL with a 6.5 WAR, a full win behind Kemp.  Knowing the voters, though, and how Braun’s team is currently in the playoff hunt, I wouldn’t be surprised if Braun won it.

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Chad Billingsley Talks About Pitch Sequencing Part II

Here’s part I of the interview, let’s jump right into this one.


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