Tag Archives: Indians

Could Dodgers look into Shin Soo Choo?

A Korean reporter tweeted today and Anthony Castrovince retweeted that Shin Soo Choo has aggressively asked for a trade after seeing other teams pop champagne corks in the recent days.

Hello, a Korean sports writer here. Choo said, purely out of envy, he wanted to play on a winning team after watching other guys pop champagne for clinching playoff berths. But he didn’t say the word ‘transfer’ (should have been translated into ‘trade.’ It’s baseball, not soccer) as far as I know. But he also said he wants to stay with one club for a long time and Cleveland would be his first choice. Then he said his agent would take care of his contract situation and that he hadn’t heard anything special from the agent. Hope this helps.

More from MLBTR:

•A story by Yoon Chul of the Korea Times quotes Shin-Soo Choo as saying he’d like to play for a team that wins more than Indians. However, GM Chris Antonetti tells Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer that he has spoken to Choo and the outfielder “expressed his passion for winning in Cleveland.”

First team I thought of was the Dodgers. Fits pretty well. Dodgers need an outfielder this offseason and have a few decent prospects the Indians would be interested. And the Indians and Dodgers have traded before (Casey Blake for Carlos Santana (sigh)).

Only problem is that Choo is just now entering his first year of arbitration (he’ll have three years) and, ya know, the Indians might not want to separate with a very, very good ballplayer just because he’s jealous. On top of that, Choo will be in his first year of arbitration.

It’s a long-shot, but I could see Colletti at least testing the waters.



Filed under Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB

PECOTA is probably wrong

This can’t be right.

Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA league standings projection system came out today and it’s all over the blagoblag.

The projections, which twice correctly predicted huge jumps in the standings in 2008 for the Tampa Bay Rays and 2006 for the Chicago White Sox, had a very bad year last year and another bad year might cause people to look to other projection systems or maybe ignore the process.

PECOTA uses an intriguing system.  Started by SABR legend Nate Silver, it mapped every career ever had by any player in history and then applied those career arcs to the players with similar production–like I said in an earlier post, baseball is fortunate enough to have such an enormous sample size to take from.  From there, it extracted what the likelihood of the player’s production would be–10% (bad), 50% (average for him) and 90% (way above average).  Then it takes those player predictions, combines them into a team’s total run production (and prevention on pitching and defense) and voila! You have your pythagorian win-loss record.

One reason why PECOTA had such a bad year in 2009 wasn’t because of bad luck–PECOTA projections do not account for injury, trades or other things that come into play during a season–it’s because it projected inaccurately.* Even by pythagorian record, the A’s and Angels were swapped. The Indians and the Diamondbacks just plain old stunk. Craig Calcaterra pointed out PECOTA predicted one of the most amazing seasons in history by a rookie catcher for Matt Weiters and they were pretty far off.

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Filed under MLB, projections