Tag Archives: MLB draft

Protected Draft Picks Will Move a Lot in the Next 48 Hours

Ah. I know all Dodger fans are rooting against the Dodgers right now so they can get a better draft pick–I’m certainly one of them.

Almost all of the protected 2011 picks are solidified except one. Here’s the teams (in a current-standings order before games on Oct. 2) and their draft picks.

1. Pittsburgh*
2. Seattle*
3. Arizona*
4. Baltimore*
5. Kansas City*
6. Washington*
6a. Arizona*
7. Cleveland*
8. Chicago Cubs*
9. Houston*
9a. San Diego*
10. Milwaukee*
11. Los Angeles Dodgers
12. Florida
13. New York Mets
14. Oakland
15. Anaheim
16. Detroit

Colorado is at no. 17, but have only 77 losses; so even if they lose their final two games, they won’t have a protected pick.

There’s room for movement, as picks 10 through 16 have between 80 and 83 losses with two games to play. The final two days here will be a game of musical chair.

Detroit is at 80-80 while Anaheim and Oakland are at 79-81. The Dodgers, Mets and Marlins are at 78-82 and the Brewers are at 77-83.

Basically Anaheim and Oakland’s unmagic number is 2.

There’s also gonna be some movement in the top quarter of the draft, since Arizona and Baltimore are tied while Kansas City, Washington and Cleveland are all within one loss of each other.

(Dodger fans: the best the Dodgers can do at this point is pass Milwaukee and grab no. 10. The worst is tying with Detroit, but I don’t know what happens in that case.)

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Correction: Dodgers Draft Pick is All But Protected

A couple of weeks ago, I reported the Dodgers were on the cusp of a protected pick, but with an added caveat: only the 13 worst records in baseball would be protected because of two picks held over from the 2010 draft (no. 6 Barret Loux and no. 9 Karsten Whitley both didn’t sign).

This is false.

The rules are that the 15 teams with the worst records in baseball have protected picks regardless of held-over picks. In the 2010 draft, the Rangers received a held-over pick for failure to sign Matt Purke from the 2009 draft between picks 14 and 15. The Cubs, who had the 15th worst record in the 2009 season, still had a protected pick at no. 16.

The ruling states that picks held over from last year’s draft become that pick’s (a). So the Rangers’ 2010 pick was pick no. 14a. The Diamondbacks’ no. 6 pick from last year will become no. 6a (7) and the Padres’ pick will be 9a (11).

This means picks 16 and 17 in the 2011 draft will be protected.

Sorry for the error, I hope I didn’t mislead anyone.

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A Quick Reminder About the Draft: Don’t Get Your Hopes Up

Before we get all of our panties in a bunch about the draft, which starts in a mere 40 minutes, let’s remember one thing: a lot of these players aren’t going to reach the majors. Maybe one of these players (Bryce Harper) has the chance to become a once-in-a-generation player. Maybe half of these picks make the majors. Maybe five or six become all-stars.

Attrition is going to happen regardless of how many players a team drafts, but a good drafting team can limit that number. Just as an example, take the Giants.

The Giants have two amazing pitchers in the majors right now, one drafted out of high school and one who had all sorts of concerns over delivery in his draft. Now this is gonna be arbitrary, but between 2000 and 2006, when these two pitchers were drafted, the Giants had nine first round picks. Nine. Only Lincecum and Cain can be considered successes; Noah Lowry had some success, but is no longer pitching in baseball. This is a successful drafting franchise. They draft a lot of pitchers and the pitching talent that’s developed and can’t be used (or peaked) is traded off, like Alderson for Freddy Sanchez, which turned out to be an OK deal. There’s a number of teams that haven’t had a single first round pick pan out in the last 12 years. And it’s more than just stumbling into talent by way of massive picks, the draft-heavy A’s haven’t developed a great prospect since Chavo in 1996 and that blew up in their faces.

Take, on the other hand, the Astros. They’ve had 28 picks in the first four rounds, years 2000-2006. Of those 28 picks, only seven reached the majors, only one of those was a first round pick (Chris Burke). And only Hunter Pence and Chad Qualls, both second round picks, have performed above average in that time (and I guess Kirk Saarloos, but really?).

Half of major league baseball’s best talent doesn’t even come from the draft, it comes from international signings.

With that in mind, let’s play a little.

Memories of Kevin Malone has a list of draftees associated with the Dodgers.

Keith Law says the Dodgers are leaning heavy toward Drew Vettleson.

Here’s basically every major mock draft.

I’m following MLB Bonus Baby and will be posting on TrueBlueLA.

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