Tag Archives: Ted Lilly

Ted Lilly’s Homerless Allowed Streak–You’re Gonna Want to Read This

I don’t know what to call it. No Homer Streak? Whatever, let’s do this.

Ted Lilly has literally never gone a month in his career without giving up a home run. In 2002, he had only two starts in July and didn’t allow a home run, so there’s that. But September 2011 is the first time in his career he went a whole month without giving up a home run.

That was six consecutive starts without allowing a home run.

His longest homerless streaks before this:

1999: 4
2001: 5
2002: 4
2003: 3
2004: 4
2005: 3
2006: 3 (2)
2007: 3 (2)
2008: 2 (3)
2009: 3
2010: 3
2011: 6

Not only did he break his personal best for most non-homer-allowed games, he did it at the end of the season when he needed to allow only two home runs to join the 30/30 club.

Lilly has started 318 games in his career, appeared in 343 total. He’s given up 286 homers in that time; with multi-home run games, he’s had 193 games where he’s allowed a home run.

For averages, his HR/9 rate is 1.4 for his career, but since he averages 6 IP per start, it’s more like 0.933 per start. Yes, averaged out, he gives up a home run per appearances.

—Betting Odds—

Since he’s had 193 games with a homer allowed, 193 divided by 342 is 56; 56% of the time he made a MLB appearance he allowed a home run. That leaves you with 44% of the time he was in a game and didn’t allow one. That’s even on the lighter side, since we’re including non-start appearances (fewer innings, fewer chances to allow a HR).

You have better odds betting on the brightly colored spots on a Craps table and winning six times in a row than betting Lilly not giving up a homer.

So what are the official chances? The chances of Lilly not giving up a home run in six consecutive games are slightly less than 1% (about 0.73%; h/t @jeffersonlives). And he did it solely to prevent himself from entering the history books.

That’s pretty cool. We saw a >1% odd happen tonight.

The 30/30 pitcher season is rarer than Lilly’s homerless streak. There are about 17 seasons I think of a pitcher giving up 30 homers and 30 stolen bases in tens of thousands of eligible pitching seasons. But instead of Lilly breaking a negative record, he created a positive one–and a personal one at that. Good for him.

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Filed under Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB, MLB history

A little reflection on the Dodgers’ Trade Deadline

Not gonna comment too much on this. A lot’s been said, a lot’s been published, but we’re going to need some time to reflect on it.

The Dodgers traded away Blake DeWitt, Elisaul Pimentel, Lucas May, Brett Wallach, James McDonald and Andrew Lambo. That’s one MLB starter, one #5 starter, two back-end starters, a back-up catcher and a troubled but talented outfield hitter.

They got in return Ted Lilly, Scott Podsednik, Ryan Theriot and Octavio Dotel. A decent SP, an average OF with no power, a replacement level 2B with no power and a sub-par reliever.

The plan is to win this year, but at what cost?


Meanwhile, the Dodgers are 7 games out of first place in the NL West and 5 games out of the wild card. It’s a long shot to even get to the playoffs.

The best news is the biggest pieces in the Dodgers’ farm system are still Dodgers. Trayvon Robinson, Jerry Sands, Chris Withrow, Dee Gordon, Aaron Miller, Ethan Martin, Javy Guerra and Nathan Eovaldi. Andrew Lambo was a loss, but he’s a risky investment and Sands has performed better than him this year and last. Sands is also a risk, but I’d rather have Sands.

Giving up McDonald, though, was a mistake. And giving up McDonald AND Lambo for Dotel was a big mistake.

Even if neither of them does well in the majors, it was overpaying greatly for a sub-par reliever. Honestly, the Dodgers paid less for Lilly and Theriot. You wonder what the Dodgers could’ve netted for McDonald and Lambo if they had shopped them more.

The second-best news, I guess, is Podsednik, Manny, Lilly and Dotel (if his option year isn’t vested) are free agents after the season and offering arbitration could give the Dodgers 5 or 6 first round draft picks, if all goes to plan.

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